SpreadsheetWisdom
Fundamentals
COVID-19 Outbreak , Not As Bad As Some Have Reported, But The Worst Is Ahead Of Us
The New York Times reported Friday on Centers for Disease Control (CDC) worst case studies of COVID-19 in the United States. Between 160 million and 214 million could be infected and 200,000 to 1.7 million could die. In the same article, an infectious diseases...
The Current Level of Market Prices
When I retired a few years ago, I decided to delve into whether or not the stock market was overvalued. Conventional wisdom at the time suggested that the stock market had been on the rise since 2009, and maybe it was overvalued. It has continued rising since then,...
Answers to Two Questions Predict the Electoral College Vote Outcome
There have been twenty-two elections since 1932, and answering two questions goes a long way towards predicting the Electoral Vote outcome.
Status Monitors
History Says Biden Should Win
The New York Times (here) recently featured historian Allan Lichtman’s system of thirteen Keys that when turned (TRUE or FALSE) predict the outcome of the presidential election. It is an entertaining and thoughtful piece but looking at history through a data science...
Trump Has A Much Harder Hill To Climb This Time
The daily news is full of presidential election stories that harken back to 2016. One theme is that 2016 polling was wrong. It showed Clinton ahead of Trump in 2016, but Trump won. Biden may be leading now, but will Trump come back from behind and win again with a...
Trump And Republicans Are Now Poised To Lose The 2020 Presidential Election
The post referenced here describes an approach for predicting the outcome of the Electoral College vote for president in 2020. The approach relies on two measures and the history of the last twenty-two elections. The two measures are the percentage of 1st ballot votes...
History Suggests The Current S&P 500 Price Is Too High
My last post (here) quantified a mean historical growth line for the S&P Composite Index (currently represented by the S&P 500) and how to measure the market level relative to that line. As you can see in Figure 1, the market level varies significantly from...
It Is Unlikely That The Number Of Covid-19 Deaths Peaked Yesterday
At the daily Covid-19 briefings, the federal administration in Washington D.C. is referencing modeling by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) regarding the number of Covid-19 deaths in the USA. IHME's modeling (here) projects that the number of...
Is Daily COVID-19 Case Count Reporting Influenced By The Day Of The Week?
I wondered in my post (here) last Friday why the daily growth in COVID-19 cases had stopped declining. I can thank my wife for the answer. It looks like a reporting issue. Weekends are under-reported, and the numbers catch-up during the week. This is not surprising...
Why Has The COVID-19 Daily Case Growth Rate Stopped Declining?
In my posts on COVID-19, I have highlighted the importance of a declining day/day case growth rate. A declining rate will bring the outbreak under control. Four days ago (here) it looked like the daily rate was declining and the isolation orders issued by most...
COVID-19 Daily Case Growth Rate Is Finally Declining
My last post (here) on March 25th highlighted the importance of reducing the day-over-day growth rate in COVID-19 cases, and I lamented how the rate was remaining stubbornly high. Fortunately, it now looks like the isolation actions taken by states and major...
Update on COVID-19 Outbreak – USA Case Growth Rate Stubbornly Persists
In the March 18th post you can find here, I projected the number of COVID-19 cases in the USA at the end of April under four scenarios: "Like South Korea", "Like China", "Like Italy" and "USA "Business as Usual"". Due to the nature of exponential growth rates, the...
The United States Senate Poorly Represents the People of the United States
The United States Senate has two senators representing each of the 50 states. This structure was created almost 250 years ago after a compromise between large-state and small-state interests1. At the time, the ratio of the number of people in the most and least...
Will the Unemployment Rate Decide Trump’s Impeachment?
The year-over-year change in unemployment rate helps predict the presidential Electoral vote, what does it say about impeachment?
Trump Currently Positioned to Win
Trump is currently positioned to win the Electoral College vote in 2020, but that could change.
Browse Your Favorite Articles
Fundamentals
Status Monitors