by Rich | Sep 7, 2020 | Status Monitors
The New York Times (here) recently featured historian Allan Lichtman’s system of thirteen Keys that when turned (TRUE or FALSE) predict the outcome of the presidential election. It is an entertaining and thoughtful piece but looking at history through a data science...
by Rich | Sep 3, 2020 | 2020 Presidential Election, Status Monitors
The daily news is full of presidential election stories that harken back to 2016. One theme is that 2016 polling was wrong. It showed Clinton ahead of Trump in 2016, but Trump won. Biden may be leading now, but will Trump come back from behind and win again with a...
by Rich | May 19, 2020 | 2020 Presidential Election, Status Monitors
The post referenced here describes an approach for predicting the outcome of the Electoral College vote for president in 2020. The approach relies on two measures and the history of the last twenty-two elections. The two measures are the percentage of 1st ballot votes...
by Rich | May 15, 2020 | Status Monitors
My last post (here) quantified a mean historical growth line for the S&P Composite Index (currently represented by the S&P 500) and how to measure the market level relative to that line. As you can see in Figure 1, the market level varies significantly from...
by Rich | Apr 11, 2020 | Status Monitors
At the daily Covid-19 briefings, the federal administration in Washington D.C. is referencing modeling by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) regarding the number of Covid-19 deaths in the USA. IHME’s modeling (here) projects that the number...
by Rich | Apr 6, 2020 | Status Monitors
I wondered in my post (here) last Friday why the daily growth in COVID-19 cases had stopped declining. I can thank my wife for the answer. It looks like a reporting issue. Weekends are under-reported, and the numbers catch-up during the week. This is not surprising...
