SpreadsheetWisdom

History Says Biden Should Win

The New York Times (here) recently featured historian Allan Lichtman’s system of thirteen Keys that when turned (TRUE or FALSE) predict the outcome of the presidential election.  It is an entertaining and thoughtful piece but looking at history through a data...

Trump Has A Much Harder Hill To Climb This Time

The daily news is full of presidential election stories that harken back to 2016.  One theme is that 2016 polling was wrong.  It showed Clinton ahead of Trump in 2016, but Trump won.  Biden may be leading now, but will Trump come back from behind and win again with...

Trump And Republicans Are Now Poised To Lose The 2020 Presidential Election

The post referenced here describes an approach for predicting the outcome of the Electoral College vote for president in 2020. The approach relies on two measures and the history of the last twenty-two elections. The two measures are the percentage of 1st ballot...

History Suggests The Current S&P 500 Price Is Too High

My last post (here) quantified a mean historical growth line for the S&P Composite Index (currently represented by the S&P 500) and how to measure the market level relative to that line.  As you can see in Figure 1, the market level varies significantly from...

Fundamentals

The Current Level of Market Prices

The Current Level of Market Prices

When I retired a few years ago, I decided to delve into whether or not the stock market was overvalued.  Conventional wisdom at the time suggested that the stock market had been on the rise since 2009, and maybe it was overvalued.  It has continued rising since then,...

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Status Monitors

History Says Biden Should Win

History Says Biden Should Win

The New York Times (here) recently featured historian Allan Lichtman’s system of thirteen Keys that when turned (TRUE or FALSE) predict the outcome of the presidential election.  It is an entertaining and thoughtful piece but looking at history through a data science...

read more
Trump Has A Much Harder Hill To Climb This Time

Trump Has A Much Harder Hill To Climb This Time

The daily news is full of presidential election stories that harken back to 2016.  One theme is that 2016 polling was wrong.  It showed Clinton ahead of Trump in 2016, but Trump won.  Biden may be leading now, but will Trump come back from behind and win again with a...

read more
History Suggests The Current S&P 500 Price Is Too High

History Suggests The Current S&P 500 Price Is Too High

My last post (here) quantified a mean historical growth line for the S&P Composite Index (currently represented by the S&P 500) and how to measure the market level relative to that line.  As you can see in Figure 1, the market level varies significantly from...

read more
COVID-19 Daily Case Growth Rate Is Finally Declining

COVID-19 Daily Case Growth Rate Is Finally Declining

My last post (here) on March 25th highlighted the importance of reducing the day-over-day growth rate in COVID-19 cases, and I lamented how the rate was remaining stubbornly high.  Fortunately, it now looks like the isolation actions taken by states and major...

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Fundamentals

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