Trump Currently Positioned to Win the Electoral College Vote in 2020, but That Could Change

The post referenced here describes an approach for predicting the outcome of the Electoral College vote for president in 2020. The approach relies on two measures and the history of the last twenty-two elections. The two measures are the percentage of 1^st ballot votes received by the incumbent party candidate at that party’s nominating convention and the year-over-year change in unemployment rate at the time of the election. An analysis of election history shows how these measures cluster the outcomes within a 95% binomial confidence band of 72.7% to 99.9%.

Figure 1 provides an assessment of these measures as of early October 2019. The last five 2020 Republican Presidential Nomination polls at RealClear Politics are used to estimate the percentage of 1^st ballot votes received by the incumbent party candidate at that party’s nominating convention. The average of these polls has President Trump at 86% in a field of challengers that includes former governor and federal prosecutor William F. Weld, conservative radio show host and former congressman Joe Walsh, and former governor and congressman Mark Sanford. Anything 75% and above favors the incumbent party candidate.

Figure 2 History of the 1st Ballot Vote Percentage for the Incumbent Party Since 1932

Figure 1 2020 Election Status

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes unemployment rate data on the first Friday of every month. The latest data through September has the year-over-year change in unemployment rate at -4.8%. Anything at or below 2.6% favors the incumbent party candidate.

History suggests that if the current values of these measures do not change, then President Trump as the Republican party’s candidate is likely to win re-election.

Potential Changes to the 1^st Ballot Vote Measure

The data in Professor Allan J. Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President” provides some insight into how this measure might change. Specifically, the 1^st Ballot Vote measure does not favor the incumbent party in 31% of the elections from 1860 through 2012. However, this percentage almost doubles to 60% if the incumbent administration experiences scandal, and there are a plethora of ongoing investigations involving President Trump and his administration. If a credible third-party candidate emerges or if the economy turns sour, then this percentage rises to 56%. And if for some reason President Trump is not the Republican party’s nominee, the percentage rises to 53%. There is not currently a significant third-party challenger, and the economy could go either way (see below).

However, history favors the incumbent Republican party candidate. The height of the bar in Figure 2 displays the 1^st ballot vote percentage for the eventual incumbent party candiadte for each election from 1932 through 2016. The threshold is set by the 1948 and 1968 elections.

Figure 2 History of the 1st Ballot Vote Percentage for the Incumbent Party Since 1932

Note that 91% of the data points are less than 60% or more than 70%. For a large majority of the time, the incumbent party displays either strong 1^st ballot support or significant 1^st ballot skepticism towards the eventual candidate. Also note that the historical trend is towards strong 1^st ballot support.

Potential Changes to the Year-Over-Year Change in Unemployment Rate

For a cross-section of prior elections, Figure 3 shows how the year-over-year change in unemployment rate and the unemployment rate have evolved over the twelve months ahead of the election. The bullet at the end of each line is the data at the time of the election. All of the lines in the graph on the left terminated above the threshold at the time of the election. The five lines in the graph on the right all terminated below the threshold at the time of the election. Also shown is status as of September 2019. It looks well below the threshold, and it may stay there like it did in the years in the right graph, but it may not like it did in 1960.

Figure 3 Trajectory of Unemployment Rate Changes for Selected Elections

Figure 4 shows the monthly year-over-year change in unemployment rate since 1949. Seventy percent of the months have year-over-year values below the threshold. Note that the 2000 election occurred below the threshold, but the year-over-year values went above the threshold the next month after staying below the threshold for ninety-seven months. That was the longest consecutive string to date. As of September 2019, we are already at a record setting 112 consecutive months. Staying below the threshold for another fourteen months would extend that record.

Figure 4 Year/Year Change in Unemployment Rate Since 1949

Poll data: (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/#)

Unemployment rate data: (https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm)