The United States Senate has two senators representing each of the 50 states. This structure was created almost 250 years ago after a compromise between large-state and small-state interests1. At the time, the ratio of the number of people in the most and least populous states was about 17-to-12, which sounds like a lot, but the situation is much more skewed today and getting worse. The misrepresentation created by this situation means motions, bills, confirmation of judges, impeachment votes and any other business of the Senate requiring votes can be passed by members representing a small or minority percentage of the voting age public.
SpreadsheetWisdom.com is dedicated to looking at the world “by the numbers.” Let’s look at the situation today and see where it is going.
The Situation Today
There are 100 United States Senators, two for each of the 50 states. Per the U.S. Census Bureau3 in 2018, there were 253,193,131 people of voting age (18 years and older) in the states. On average then, there is one Senator for every 2.5 million voting age people.
Let’s define any state that has 2.5 million people per Senator as having a representation ratio of 1.0. If a state has 1 million people per Senator, then that state’s representation ratio is 2.5 (i.e., 2.5/1.0), and the state’s voting age population is more represented than average. Alternatively, if a state has 5 million people per Senator, then that state’s representation ratio is 0.5 (i.e., 2.5/5.0), and that state’s voting age population is less represented than average.
Figure 1 shows how the representation ratio varies by state. The most average state is Indiana with a ratio 0f 0.99, and there are six states within 10% of the average. However, most states are well away from the average. Thirty-three states are over-represented, and sixteen states are under-represented. The most represented state is Wyoming with a ratio of 11.46. The least represented state is California, with a ratio of 0.17. Compared to California, the people of Wyoming have a factor of 69-to-1 better representation in the Senate!
Figure 1 Ranked Representation Ratio by State
Figure 2 shows that for votes requiring a simple majority, all it takes are the Senator’s from the 25-1/2 most over-represented states representing just 17% of the voting age population. For votes requiring a 2/3rds majority, the Senator’s from the 33-1/2 most over-represented states are enough, and they represent just 30% of the voting age population.
Figure 2 States Representing a Minority of the Voting Age Public Can Create Majority Votes in the Senate
Looking at the representation question from a political perspective also shows disparity. In the current Senate, Table 1 shows that there are 53 republican Senators representing 47.6% of the voting age public. The two Independent Senator’s in the current Senate caucus with the Democratics. Democratic and Independent Senator’s number 47 and represent 52.4% of the voting age public. The majority of the voting age population is represented by the minority of the Senators. This is a direct result of the state’s Representation Ratios favoring Republican Senators.
Table 1 Political Representation in the Senate
The situation is far worse for many other citizens of the United States because they are not represented in the Senate at all:
- In 2018, the District of Columbia had about 575,000 United States citizens 18 years and older. That number is greater than the voting age population of three other states (Wyoming, Vermont and Alaska), and similar to the 581,000 people in North Dakota.
- There are about 3 million voting age United States citizens in the following territories of the United States: Puerto Rico, Guam, U.S Virgin Islands and Northern Mariana Islands. By itself, Puerto Rico has more voting age citizens than 21 states.
How Will This Look in the Future?
Since the founding of the United States, the Senate’s representation disparity has significantly increased, and if current population trends persist, it will grow more disparate in the future. Table 2 illustrates this trend. The compromises that led to the structure of the Senate at the time of the Country’s founding were based on a representation disparity (population ratio of the most to least represented state) of about 17-to-1. Today this ratio is 69-to-1. If current state growth rates4 continue for the next 10 years, this ratio will grow to 92-to-1. Even if state growth rates change somewhat, the trend is clear. The situation has been getting worse for the past 245 years, and it will continue to get worse in the future.
Table 2 How Representation Disparity Changes Over Time
The numbers behind the compromise almost 250 years ago have changed dramatically. One would think that at some point this large and growing representation disparity will lead to disaffection by the poorly represented majority of the voting age public. Perhaps it is time to consider a new compromise?
1 https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/briefing/Constitution_Senate.htm
2 http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/thirteen-colonies/ and https://www.census.gov/history/pdf/colonialbostonpops.pdf
4 http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/fastest-growing-states/