In my posts on COVID-19, I have highlighted the importance of a declining day/day case growth rate. A declining rate will bring the outbreak under control. Four days ago (here) it looked like the daily rate was declining and the isolation orders issued by most states and many localities were having the desired effect. Since then, the USA population under some kind of a stay-at-home order has risen from 73% to 85%.
Unfortunately, the last four days has seen the day/day case growth rate level out (Figure 1). What happened?
Figure 1 National Case Growth Rate Trend Has Flattened Out
The answer is that the biggest state contributors to the national growth rate have mostly seen their rates flat-line or increase. Figure 2 shows the day/day rate for the six states with the largest contribution of cases to the national total. Of these six, only New Jersey has maintained a downward trend. New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida have all leveled out. Louisiana’s rate has significantly increased.
Figure 2 The Six States With the Largest Contribution the National Case Count
Some (here) have attributed Louisiana’s trend to Mardi Gras, which ended in late February. The statewide stay-at-home order went into effect March 23rd, the day after the peak (43%) in Figure 2, and the rate declined for a week after that. Now the rate is back up to 42% and on an increasing trend. Are we seeing a “second wave” post Mardi Gras?
The statewide stay-at-home orders in Pennsylvania and Florida were issued April 1st and April 3rd, respectively, although there were local orders prior to these dates (here). Is there a “second wave” coming to these states too? New York has 38% of the cases in the USA with most of them in New York city. They can’t stand a second wave.
Whatever the reasons behind the situation in these states, the national growth rate appears stuck at 14%, and if it stays there, the number of cases will double in about 5 days.
Reference: www.worldometers.info